Returns 5.1
Returns & Scenarios
Base, upside and downside, and the shape of the cash over ten years.
Cedarline Capital · Fund I
Three CasesReturns · 02
Net to LPs, after 2% fee, 20% carry, 8% pref

A base of 2.5x and 23%, and a downside that still returns capital.

Downside1.6x11% net IRRSlower deployment, ~7.5x exit, one platform underperforms.
Base2.5x23% net IRRThree platforms, ~4.7x blended entry, 9.5x exit, plan hit.
Upside3.1x29% net IRRFaster bolt-on cadence, 11x exit, multiple expansion.
Illustrative model · sample fundCedarline Capital · Cases
The J-CurveReturns · 03
Base case · net cumulative cash to LPs, as a multiple of commitment

Trough at year 4, crossover around year 6, +1.5x by year 10.

Distributions begin ~year 4–5Cedarline Capital · J-Curve
Distributions & DPIReturns · 04
Base case · cumulative, as a multiple of commitment

Paid-in tops out at 1.0x. DPI builds to 2.5x, crossing 1.0x near year 6.

Paid-in (PIC)Distributions (DPI)
DPI crosses 1.0x ~year 6Cedarline Capital · DPI
Gross-to-Net BridgeReturns · 05
Base case · MOIC terms

3.3x gross becomes 2.5x net after fees, carry and expenses.

Gross IRR ~31% → Net IRR ~23%Cedarline Capital · Bridge
SensitivityReturns · 06
Base case · net return against platform exit EBITDA multiple

The exit multiple is the swing factor.

Exit multipleNet MOICNet IRRRead
8.0x2.1x18%Conservative exit, still a strong outcome
9.5x (base)2.5x23%Central assumption
11.0x2.9x27%Multiple expansion on top of growth

Because returns are underwritten to EBITDA growth, even the conservative 8.0x exit clears 2x net. Multiple expansion is upside, not the base case. Model your own commitment and case in LP Calc.

Illustrative · sample fundCedarline Capital · Sensitivity